Richmond City, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 78th
Richmond City faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 78.4, 78th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $39M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Richmond City at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 78.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 78th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $8M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 5.37 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $22M in expected annual loss and about 0.86 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $39M in expected annual loss for a population of 226K.
Beyond physical exposure, Richmond City has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Richmond City has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 8 for hurricane events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Richmond City ranks #8 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $8M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 5.37 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.86 / yr | $22M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.10 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.03 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.27 / yr | $132K |
| Hail | Low | 2.43 / yr | $370K |
| Lightning | Medium | 43.39 / yr | $308K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.58 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 5.32 / yr | $71K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 3.72 / yr | $15K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.16 / yr | $288K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $128 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $6K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 5.40 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Richmond City has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (8), Severe Storm (3), Snowstorm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| September 2006 | Severe Storm | Tropical Depression Ernesto, Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Richmond City?
Richmond City has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 78.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 78th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Richmond City?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $8M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $3M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $22M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Richmond City compare to other Virginia counties?
Richmond City ranks #8 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Richmond City had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Richmond City since 1972, most often 8 for hurricane events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Richmond City's $39M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.