Mathews County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 12th
Mathews County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 12.2, 12th national percentile), driven primarily by coastal flood and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $4M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Mathews County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 12.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 12th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by coastal flood (seawater inundation from storm surge, high tides, and rising sea levels) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 3.69 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $462K in expected annual loss and about 0.20 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Low risk — $100K in expected annual loss and about 2.66 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $4M in expected annual loss for a population of 9K.
Beyond physical exposure, Mathews County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The federal record bears this out: Mathews County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 11 for hurricane events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Mathews County ranks #100 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Coastal Flood | Medium | 3.69 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.20 / yr | $462K |
| Drought | Low | 2.66 / yr | $100K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $20K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $74K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.89 / yr | $26K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.02 / yr | $190K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 5.37 / yr | $73K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $133K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.58 / yr | $100K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.46 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.79 / yr | $24K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 39.66 / yr | $22K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 4.16 / yr | $3K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Mathews County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (11), Biological (2), Snowstorm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| November 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| September 2006 | Severe Storm | Tropical Depression Ernesto, Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Mathews County?
Mathews County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 12.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 12th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Mathews County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Coastal Flood (Medium, $2M EAL), Hurricane (Low, $462K EAL), Drought (Low, $100K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Mathews County compare to other Virginia counties?
Mathews County ranks #100 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Mathews County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Mathews County since 1972, most often 11 for hurricane events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Mathews County's $4M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.