Clarke County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 7th
Clarke County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 6.9, 7th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Clarke County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 6.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 7th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Clarke County's expected losses come from drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $556K in expected annual loss and about 3.92 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Very Low risk — $193K in expected annual loss and about 0.09 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $681K in expected annual loss and about 3.53 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 15K.
Beyond physical exposure, Clarke County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Clarke County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 6 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Clarke County ranks #114 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 3.92 / yr | $556K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $193K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 3.53 / yr | $681K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $2K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $166K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $26K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 7.35 / yr | $490K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.86 / yr | $108K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 12.44 / yr | $24K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.32 / yr | $3M |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $198K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 37.50 / yr | $74K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $17 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.74 / yr | $85K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.58 / yr | $2K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Clarke County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (6), Snowstorm (4), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| November 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| April 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Clarke County?
Clarke County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 6.9 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 7th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Clarke County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $556K EAL), Hurricane (Very Low, $193K EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $681K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Clarke County compare to other Virginia counties?
Clarke County ranks #114 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Clarke County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Clarke County since 1972, most often 6 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Clarke County's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.