Grand Isle County, Vermont Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VT

Very Low

Composite Risk Score

1.9

National percentile: 2th

Grand Isle County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 1.9, 2th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $4M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Grand Isle County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 1.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 2nd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

The county's risk is driven primarily by ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Low risk — $81K in expected annual loss and about 0.49 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Very Low risk — $40K in expected annual loss and about 0.02 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Very Low risk — $161K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $4M in expected annual loss for a population of 7K.

Beyond physical exposure, Grand Isle County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.

History supports the rating: Grand Isle County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 6 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Tropical Depression Debby (tropical storm), declared in August 2024.

Among 14 Vermont counties, Grand Isle County ranks #14 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $4M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Very Low Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Very High Capacity to recover
Population 7K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Low $81K/yr
Very Low $40K/yr
Very Low $161K/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Ice Storm Low 0.49 / yr$81K
Hurricane Very Low 0.02 / yr$40K
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$161K
Lightning Very Low 22.47 / yr$144K
Winter Weather Very Low 13.84 / yr$31K
Heat Wave Very Low 2.16 / yr$60K
Riverine Flood Very Low 0.43 / yr$3M
Strong Wind Very Low 0.62 / yr$172K
Landslide Very Low 0.02 / yr$37
Cold Wave Very Low 3.05 / yr$90K
Tornado Very Low 0.01 / yr$35K
Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr$3K
Hail Very Low 0.89 / yr$5K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Drought Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Grand Isle County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Tropical Depression Debby in August 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (6), Flood (4), Hurricane (3).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
August 2024Tropical StormTropical Depression Debby
July 2023FloodSevere Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides
July 2023FloodFlooding
March 2023Severe StormSevere Storm and Flooding
August 2021HurricaneTropical Storm Henri
April 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
July 2018Severe StormSevere Storm and Flooding
January 2018Severe StormSevere Storm and Flooding
January 2014Severe Ice StormSevere Winter Storms

Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Grand Isle County?

Grand Isle County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 1.9 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 2th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Grand Isle County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Low, $81K EAL), Hurricane (Very Low, $40K EAL), Earthquake (Very Low, $161K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Grand Isle County compare to other Vermont counties?

Grand Isle County ranks #14 of 14 Vermont counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Grand Isle County had?

FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for Grand Isle County since 1973, most often 6 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Tropical Depression Debby, declared in August 2024.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Grand Isle County's $4M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.