Orange County, Vermont Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VT
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 26th
Orange County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 26.4, 26th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Orange County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 26.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 26th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Orange County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $30K in expected annual loss and about 1.48 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $472K in expected annual loss and about 0.05 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $506K in expected annual loss and about 20.36 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 29K.
Beyond physical exposure, Orange County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Orange County has received 34 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 17 for severe storm events and 11 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storm, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides (severe storm), declared in August 2024.
Among 14 Vermont counties, Orange County ranks #11 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Low | 1.48 / yr | $30K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.05 / yr | $472K |
| Lightning | Medium | 20.36 / yr | $506K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 20.60 / yr | $93K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.04 / yr | $9M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.43 / yr | $67K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $169K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $225 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.11 / yr | $250K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 3.95 / yr | $555K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.93 / yr | $301K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $8K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.06 / yr | $143K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.52 / yr | $37K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Orange County has received 34 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storm, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides in August 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (17), Flood (11), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Depression Debby |
| March 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm and Flooding |
| July 2023 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| July 2023 | Flood | Flooding |
| March 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm and Flooding |
| August 2021 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Henri |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| January 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 34 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Orange County?
Orange County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 26.4 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 26th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Orange County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Low, $30K EAL), Hurricane (Low, $472K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $506K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Orange County compare to other Vermont counties?
Orange County ranks #11 of 14 Vermont counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Orange County had?
FEMA records 34 federal disaster declarations for Orange County since 1973, most often 17 for severe storm events and 11 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storm, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared in August 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Orange County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.