Washington County, Utah Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · UT
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 93th
Washington County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 92.8, 93th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $148M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Washington County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 92.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 93rd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at High risk — $68M in expected annual loss and about 0.02 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 41.36 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 2.64 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $148M in expected annual loss for a population of 180K.
Beyond physical exposure, Washington County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Washington County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 6 for fire events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Forsyth Fire (fire), declared in June 2025.
Among 29 Utah counties, Washington County ranks #3 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | High | 0.02 / yr | $68M |
| Lightning | Very High | 41.36 / yr | $6M |
| Landslide | High | 2.64 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 6.68 / yr | $66M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 2.54 / yr | $4M |
| Avalanche | High | 0.33 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $2M |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $74 |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.01 / yr | $109K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 16.96 / yr | $68K |
| Drought | Low | 57.61 / yr | $69K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $127K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $31K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $17K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $18K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Washington County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Forsyth Fire in June 2025. Most frequent causes: Fire (6), Flood (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2025 | Fire | Forsyth Fire |
| July 2020 | Fire | Veyo West Fire |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2016 | Fire | Saddle Fire |
| November 2012 | Flood | Severe Storm and Flooding |
| February 2011 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| August 2009 | Fire | Mill Flat Fire |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| June 2005 | Fire | Blue Springs Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 14 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Washington County?
Washington County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 92.8 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 93th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Washington County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (High, $68M EAL), Lightning (Very High, $6M EAL), Landslide (High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Washington County compare to other Utah counties?
Washington County ranks #3 of 29 Utah counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Washington County had?
FEMA records 14 federal disaster declarations for Washington County since 1977, most often 6 for fire events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Forsyth Fire, declared in June 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Washington County's $148M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.