Davis County, Utah Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · UT
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 88th
Davis County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 87.8, 88th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $128M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Davis County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 87.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 88th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $89M in expected annual loss and about 0.02 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 33.73 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $217K in expected annual loss and about 0.40 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $128M in expected annual loss for a population of 363K.
Beyond physical exposure, Davis County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Davis County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 2 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Straight-Line Winds (severe storm), declared in January 2021.
Among 29 Utah counties, Davis County ranks #4 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.02 / yr | $89M |
| Lightning | Very High | 33.73 / yr | $5M |
| Landslide | Medium | 0.40 / yr | $217K |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $3M |
| Avalanche | High | 0.33 / yr | $3M |
| Winter Weather | High | 25.05 / yr | $636K |
| Strong Wind | High | 1.19 / yr | $3M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 2.20 / yr | $4M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.39 / yr | $16M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.16 / yr | $2M |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $17 |
| Drought | Low | 46.03 / yr | $134K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.01 / yr | $73K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.04 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.28 / yr | $113K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Davis County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Straight-Line Winds in January 2021. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (2), Biological (2), Fire (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2021 | Severe Storm | Straight-Line Winds |
| July 2020 | Earthquake | Earthquake and Aftershocks |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2019 | Fire | Gun Range Fire |
| September 2017 | Fire | Uintah Fire |
| February 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| August 1984 | Flood | Severe Storms, Mudslides, Landslides & Flooding |
| April 1983 | Flood | Severe Storms, Landslides & Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 11 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Davis County?
Davis County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 87.8 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 88th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Davis County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $89M EAL), Lightning (Very High, $5M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $217K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Davis County compare to other Utah counties?
Davis County ranks #4 of 29 Utah counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Davis County had?
FEMA records 11 federal disaster declarations for Davis County since 1977, most often 2 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Straight-Line Winds, declared in January 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Davis County's $128M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.