Cache County, Utah Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · UT
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 67th
Cache County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 66.5, 67th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $39M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Cache County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 66.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 67th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $19M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $836K in expected annual loss and about 36.63 events per year; and avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.37 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $39M in expected annual loss for a population of 133K.
Beyond physical exposure, Cache County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Cache County has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 3 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 29 Utah counties, Cache County ranks #6 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $19M |
| Winter Weather | High | 36.63 / yr | $836K |
| Avalanche | High | 0.37 / yr | $4M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | High | 32.61 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.83 / yr | $43K |
| Drought | Low | 77.59 / yr | $375K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 0.49 / yr | $749K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.24 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.54 / yr | $9M |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.78 / yr | $346K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $394K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $27K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.24 / yr | $84K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Cache County has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (3), Biological (2), Coastal Storm (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2017 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
| August 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| March 1986 | Flood | Heavy Rains, Snowmelt & Flooding |
| January 1977 | Drought | Drought |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Cache County?
Cache County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 66.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 67th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Cache County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $19M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $836K EAL), Avalanche (High, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Cache County compare to other Utah counties?
Cache County ranks #6 of 29 Utah counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Cache County had?
FEMA records 7 federal disaster declarations for Cache County since 1977, most often 3 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Cache County's $39M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.