Cache County, Utah Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · UT

Low

Composite Risk Score

66.5

National percentile: 67th

Cache County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 66.5, 67th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $39M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Cache County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 66.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 67th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

The county's risk is driven primarily by earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $19M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $836K in expected annual loss and about 36.63 events per year; and avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.37 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $39M in expected annual loss for a population of 133K.

Beyond physical exposure, Cache County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.

The federal record bears this out: Cache County has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 3 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.

Among 29 Utah counties, Cache County ranks #6 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $39M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Very Low Population sensitivity
Community Resilience High Capacity to recover
Population 133K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Medium $19M/yr
High $836K/yr
High $4M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Earthquake Medium 0.01 / yr$19M
Winter Weather High 36.63 / yr$836K
Avalanche High 0.37 / yr$4M
Wildfire Low 0.00 / yr$1M
Lightning High 32.61 / yr$1M
Landslide Low 0.83 / yr$43K
Drought Low 77.59 / yr$375K
Heat Wave Low 0.49 / yr$749K
Cold Wave Low 0.24 / yr$2M
Riverine Flood Low 0.54 / yr$9M
Strong Wind Low 0.78 / yr$346K
Tornado Very Low 0.08 / yr$394K
Ice Storm Very Low 0.01 / yr$27K
Hail Very Low 0.24 / yr$84K
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Hurricane Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Cache County has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (3), Biological (2), Coastal Storm (1).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
April 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
April 2017FloodSevere Winter Storms and Flooding
August 2011FloodFlooding
September 2005Coastal StormHurricane Katrina Evacuation
March 1986FloodHeavy Rains, Snowmelt & Flooding
January 1977DroughtDrought

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Cache County?

Cache County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 66.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 67th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Cache County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $19M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $836K EAL), Avalanche (High, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Cache County compare to other Utah counties?

Cache County ranks #6 of 29 Utah counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Cache County had?

FEMA records 7 federal disaster declarations for Cache County since 1977, most often 3 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Cache County's $39M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.