San Juan County, Utah Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · UT
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 27th
San Juan County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 26.8, 27th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and avalanche exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in San Juan County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 26.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 27th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at High risk — $492K in expected annual loss and about 3.85 events per year; avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at High risk — $913K in expected annual loss and about 0.07 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $135K in expected annual loss and about 10.10 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 14K.
Beyond physical exposure, San Juan County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: San Juan County has received 6 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 2 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Deer Creek Fire (fire), declared in July 2025.
Among 29 Utah counties, San Juan County ranks #15 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | High | 3.85 / yr | $492K |
| Avalanche | High | 0.07 / yr | $913K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 10.10 / yr | $135K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $298K |
| Lightning | Medium | 46.57 / yr | $428K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 1.24 / yr | $776K |
| Drought | Low | 133.01 / yr | $130K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $211K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.86 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $12K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $23K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $13K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4 |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.06 / yr | $2K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
San Juan County has received 6 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Deer Creek Fire in July 2025. Most frequent causes: Fire (2), Biological (2), Coastal Storm (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | Fire | Deer Creek Fire |
| June 2021 | Fire | Pack Creek Fire |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| January 1977 | Drought | Drought |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for San Juan County?
San Juan County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 26.8 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 27th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in San Juan County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (High, $492K EAL), Avalanche (High, $913K EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $135K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does San Juan County compare to other Utah counties?
San Juan County ranks #15 of 29 Utah counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has San Juan County had?
FEMA records 6 federal disaster declarations for San Juan County since 1977, most often 2 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Deer Creek Fire, declared in July 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. San Juan County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.