Millard County, Utah Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · UT
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 22th
Millard County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 22.2, 22th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Millard County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 22.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 22nd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Millard County's expected losses come from winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $449K in expected annual loss and about 16.46 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 13K.
Beyond physical exposure, Millard County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Millard County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 3 for fire events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Canal Fire (fire), declared in June 2020.
Among 29 Utah counties, Millard County ranks #17 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | High | 16.46 / yr | $449K |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Medium | 76.36 / yr | $806K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $128 |
| Avalanche | Low | 0.17 / yr | $8K |
| Lightning | Low | 33.76 / yr | $136K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.73 / yr | $183K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 2.29 / yr | $197 |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.32 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.25 / yr | $78K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $5K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $41K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $20K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $2K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Millard County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Canal Fire in June 2020. Most frequent causes: Fire (3), Flood (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2020 | Fire | Canal Fire |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2012 | Fire | Clay Springs Fire |
| August 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| July 2007 | Fire | Milford Flat Fire |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| August 1984 | Flood | Severe Storms, Mudslides, Landslides & Flooding |
| April 1983 | Flood | Severe Storms, Landslides & Flooding |
| January 1977 | Drought | Drought |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Millard County?
Millard County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 22.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 22th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Millard County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $449K EAL), Wildfire (Medium, $1M EAL), Earthquake (Low, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Millard County compare to other Utah counties?
Millard County ranks #17 of 29 Utah counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Millard County had?
FEMA records 10 federal disaster declarations for Millard County since 1977, most often 3 for fire events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Canal Fire, declared in June 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Millard County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.