Pennington County, South Dakota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · SD
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 79th
Pennington County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 78.6, 79th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $41M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Pennington County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 78.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 79th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $8M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 5.77 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $657K in expected annual loss and about 17.22 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $41M in expected annual loss for a population of 109K.
Beyond physical exposure, Pennington County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Pennington County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 6 for flood events and 5 for fire events. The most recent was Straight-Line Winds (straight-line winds), declared in April 2026.
Among 66 South Dakota counties, Pennington County ranks #3 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $8M |
| Hail | High | 5.77 / yr | $4M |
| Winter Weather | High | 17.22 / yr | $657K |
| Lightning | High | 39.90 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 4.96 / yr | $5M |
| Landslide | Low | 1.73 / yr | $30K |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.12 / yr | $525K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.07 / yr | $17M |
| Tornado | Low | 0.58 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 0.89 / yr | $588K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $406K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.92 / yr | $306K |
| Drought | Very Low | 53.32 / yr | $14K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Pennington County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Straight-Line Winds in April 2026. Most frequent causes: Flood (6), Fire (5), Severe Storm (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | Straight-Line Winds | Straight-Line Winds |
| October 2021 | Fire | Auburn Fire |
| March 2021 | Fire | Schroeder Fire |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, and Flooding |
| February 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| November 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Pennington County?
Pennington County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 78.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 79th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Pennington County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $8M EAL), Hail (High, $4M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $657K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Pennington County compare to other South Dakota counties?
Pennington County ranks #3 of 66 South Dakota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Pennington County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Pennington County since 1965, most often 6 for flood events and 5 for fire events. The most recent was Straight-Line Winds, declared in April 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Pennington County's $41M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.