Lincoln County, South Dakota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · SD
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 63th
Lincoln County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 63.0, 63th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $42M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Lincoln County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 63.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 63rd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 17.84 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $17M in expected annual loss and about 0.49 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.09 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $42M in expected annual loss for a population of 65K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lincoln County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Lincoln County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 7 for flood events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding (flood), declared in August 2024.
Among 66 South Dakota counties, Lincoln County ranks #6 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | High | 17.84 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | High | 0.49 / yr | $17M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.09 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Medium | 6.39 / yr | $1M |
| Drought | Medium | 22.19 / yr | $879K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $219K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 7.63 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.71 / yr | $15M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.14 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 5.95 / yr | $471K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.07 / yr | $810 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $79K |
| Lightning | Low | 38.57 / yr | $154K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lincoln County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding in August 2024. Most frequent causes: Flood (7), Severe Storm (6), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| November 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, and Flooding |
| July 2014 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornado, and Flooding |
| May 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| September 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lincoln County?
Lincoln County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 63.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 63th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lincoln County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $1M EAL), Tornado (High, $17M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lincoln County compare to other South Dakota counties?
Lincoln County ranks #6 of 66 South Dakota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lincoln County had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Lincoln County since 1969, most often 7 for flood events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding, declared in August 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lincoln County's $42M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.