Lehigh County, Pennsylvania Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · PA
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 94th
Lehigh County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 93.9, 94th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $128M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Lehigh County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 93.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 94th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Very High risk — $30M in expected annual loss and about 1.00 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 13.53 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 6.05 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $128M in expected annual loss for a population of 374K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lehigh County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Lehigh County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 5 for hurricane events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 67 Pennsylvania counties, Lehigh County ranks #6 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | Very High | 1.00 / yr | $30M |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 13.53 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 6.05 / yr | $7M |
| Lightning | High | 35.22 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | High | 6.29 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 3.18 / yr | $68M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.06 / yr | $7M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $4M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.18 / yr | $5M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.28 / yr | $13K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.52 / yr | $310K |
| Drought | Medium | 1.74 / yr | $334K |
| Hail | Low | 2.70 / yr | $149K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $13K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $17 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lehigh County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (5), Snowstorm (3), Flood (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Flood | Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| September 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina |
| September 2004 | Hurricane | Tropical Depression Ivan |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding Associated with Tropical Depression Frances |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lehigh County?
Lehigh County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 93.9 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 94th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lehigh County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (Very High, $30M EAL), Winter Weather (Very High, $1M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $7M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lehigh County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?
Lehigh County ranks #6 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lehigh County had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Lehigh County since 1965, most often 5 for hurricane events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lehigh County's $128M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.