Juniata County, Pennsylvania Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · PA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 39th
Juniata County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 38.8, 39th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $9M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Juniata County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 38.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 39th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Juniata County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $11K in expected annual loss and about 0.56 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $914K in expected annual loss and about 0.06 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $81K in expected annual loss and about 12.47 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $9M in expected annual loss for a population of 23K.
Beyond physical exposure, Juniata County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Juniata County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 7 for flood events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 67 Pennsylvania counties, Juniata County ranks #60 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Low | 0.56 / yr | $11K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.06 / yr | $914K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 12.47 / yr | $81K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.68 / yr | $7M |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $509 |
| Strong Wind | Low | 3.65 / yr | $409K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $97K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.68 / yr | $150K |
| Lightning | Low | 34.52 / yr | $74K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.16 / yr | $301K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.75 / yr | $37K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.23 / yr | $6K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.32 / yr | $93K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Juniata County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (7), Snowstorm (4), Hurricane (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| January 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Flood | Tropical Storm Lee |
| September 2011 | Flood | Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| April 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina |
| September 2004 | Hurricane | Tropical Depression Ivan |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Juniata County?
Juniata County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 38.8 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 39th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Juniata County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Low, $11K EAL), Hurricane (Low, $914K EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $81K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Juniata County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?
Juniata County ranks #60 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Juniata County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Juniata County since 1972, most often 7 for flood events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Juniata County's $9M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.