Elk County, Pennsylvania Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · PA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 45th
Elk County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 45.2, 45th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $15M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Elk County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 45.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 45th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Elk County's expected losses come from lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $747K in expected annual loss and about 35.47 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $7K in expected annual loss and about 0.72 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Low risk — $13M in expected annual loss and about 0.43 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $15M in expected annual loss for a population of 31K.
Beyond physical exposure, Elk County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Elk County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 3 for hurricane events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Tropical Storm Debby (tropical storm), declared in September 2024.
Among 67 Pennsylvania counties, Elk County ranks #58 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | Medium | 35.47 / yr | $747K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.72 / yr | $7K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.43 / yr | $13M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 18.79 / yr | $129K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.05 / yr | $333K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.02 / yr | $419K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 4.00 / yr | $424K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $63K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.20 / yr | $220K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.29 / yr | $11K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.42 / yr | $13K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.23 / yr | $18K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Elk County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Tropical Storm Debby in September 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (3), Biological (2), Flood (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina |
| September 2004 | Hurricane | Tropical Depression Ivan |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding Associated with Tropical Depression Frances |
| January 1996 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 1993 | Snowstorm | Severe Snowfall & Winter Storm |
| June 1972 | Flood | Tropical Storm Agnes |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Elk County?
Elk County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 45.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 45th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Elk County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (Medium, $747K EAL), Landslide (Low, $7K EAL), Riverine Flood (Low, $13M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Elk County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?
Elk County ranks #58 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Elk County had?
FEMA records 10 federal disaster declarations for Elk County since 1972, most often 3 for hurricane events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Tropical Storm Debby, declared in September 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Elk County's $15M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.