Wheeler County, Oregon Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OR
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 7th
Wheeler County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 7.2, 7th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $3M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Wheeler County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 7.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 7th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $816K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $761K in expected annual loss and about 14.68 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $4K in expected annual loss and about 1.21 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $3M in expected annual loss for a population of 1K.
Beyond physical exposure, Wheeler County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Wheeler County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1964, including 4 for severe storm events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Wildfires (fire), declared in January 2025.
Among 36 Oregon counties, Wheeler County ranks #34 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $816K |
| Lightning | High | 14.68 / yr | $761K |
| Landslide | Low | 1.21 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $6 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $17K |
| Drought | Very Low | 59.03 / yr | $179 |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.46 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 13.04 / yr | $7K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 3.17 / yr | $7K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $22K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.28 / yr | $11K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $13K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $653 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $629 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Wheeler County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1964, most recently Wildfires in January 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (4), Fire (3), Flood (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2025 | Fire | Wildfires |
| September 2024 | Fire | Rail Ridge Fire |
| July 2024 | Fire | Lone Rock Fire |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| February 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| March 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| February 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
Showing the 10 most recent of 14 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Wheeler County?
Wheeler County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 7.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 7th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Wheeler County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Low, $816K EAL), Lightning (High, $761K EAL), Landslide (Low, $4K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Wheeler County compare to other Oregon counties?
Wheeler County ranks #34 of 36 Oregon counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Wheeler County had?
FEMA records 14 federal disaster declarations for Wheeler County since 1964, most often 4 for severe storm events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Wildfires, declared in January 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Wheeler County's $3M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.