Lake County, Oregon Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OR
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 19th
Lake County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 19.1, 19th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Lake County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 19.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 19th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $154K in expected annual loss and about 19.31 events per year; and volcanic activity (eruptions producing ashfall, lava, and pyroclastic hazards) at Very Low risk — $212 in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 8K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lake County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Lake County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1964, including 5 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Patton Meadow Fire (fire), declared in August 2021.
Among 36 Oregon counties, Lake County ranks #33 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 19.31 / yr | $154K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $212 |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.02 / yr | $818K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 2.16 / yr | $777 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $211 |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.18 / yr | $4M |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.64 / yr | $77K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 15.40 / yr | $62K |
| Drought | Very Low | 124.03 / yr | $4K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.16 / yr | $89K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $4K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $17K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $3K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $2K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lake County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1964, most recently Patton Meadow Fire in August 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (5), Biological (2), Severe Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2021 | Fire | Patton Meadow Fire |
| July 2021 | Fire | Bootleg Fire |
| September 2020 | Fire | Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds |
| September 2020 | Fire | Brattain Fire |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| February 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| July 2002 | Fire | Or - Winter Fire - 07/15/2002 |
| January 1997 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Land and Mudslides, Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lake County?
Lake County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 19.1 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 19th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lake County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $1M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $154K EAL), Volcanic Activity (Very Low, $212 EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lake County compare to other Oregon counties?
Lake County ranks #33 of 36 Oregon counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lake County had?
FEMA records 12 federal disaster declarations for Lake County since 1964, most often 5 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Patton Meadow Fire, declared in August 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lake County's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.