Pawnee County, Oklahoma Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OK
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 48th
Pawnee County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 48.1, 48th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Pawnee County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 48.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 48th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Pawnee County's expected losses come from ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $898K in expected annual loss and about 1.03 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $621K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $648K in expected annual loss and about 50.79 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 15K.
Beyond physical exposure, Pawnee County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Pawnee County has received 36 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 10 for severe ice storm events and 9 for severe storm events. The most recent was Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds (fire), declared in May 2025.
Among 77 Oklahoma counties, Pawnee County ranks #46 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 1.03 / yr | $898K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $621K |
| Drought | Medium | 50.79 / yr | $648K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.89 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 23.79 / yr | $781K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.19 / yr | $5K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.66 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Low | 10.01 / yr | $404K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 6.83 / yr | $539K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 9.32 / yr | $46K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.32 / yr | $3M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $69K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 52.70 / yr | $33K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Pawnee County has received 36 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Ice Storm (10), Severe Storm (9), Fire (8).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Fire | Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds |
| March 2025 | Fire | 328 Fire |
| March 2025 | Fire | Barn Fire |
| March 2025 | Fire | Keystone Fire |
| July 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| December 2020 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
Showing the 10 most recent of 36 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Pawnee County?
Pawnee County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 48.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 48th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Pawnee County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $898K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $621K EAL), Drought (Medium, $648K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Pawnee County compare to other Oklahoma counties?
Pawnee County ranks #46 of 77 Oklahoma counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Pawnee County had?
FEMA records 36 federal disaster declarations for Pawnee County since 1974, most often 10 for severe ice storm events and 9 for severe storm events. The most recent was Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Pawnee County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.