Cotton County, Oklahoma Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OK
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 5th
Cotton County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 4.9, 5th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $3M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Cotton County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 4.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 5th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Cotton County's expected losses come from drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $596K in expected annual loss and about 92.42 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $131K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Low risk — $67K in expected annual loss and about 1.11 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $3M in expected annual loss for a population of 6K.
Beyond physical exposure, Cotton County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Cotton County has received 37 federal disaster declarations since 1971, including 18 for severe storm events and 7 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (tornado), declared in April 2024.
Among 77 Oklahoma counties, Cotton County ranks #77 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 92.42 / yr | $596K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $131K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.11 / yr | $67K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 15.79 / yr | $155K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 4.04 / yr | $288K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $69K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.54 / yr | $427K |
| Hail | Very Low | 10.10 / yr | $82K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $7K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $117 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 7.42 / yr | $14K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.16 / yr | $138K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.50 / yr | $880K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 50.81 / yr | $9K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Cotton County has received 37 federal disaster declarations since 1971, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in April 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (18), Severe Ice Storm (7), Tornado (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2024 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| July 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2017 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 37 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Cotton County?
Cotton County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 4.9 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 5th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Cotton County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $596K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $131K EAL), Ice Storm (Low, $67K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Cotton County compare to other Oklahoma counties?
Cotton County ranks #77 of 77 Oklahoma counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Cotton County had?
FEMA records 37 federal disaster declarations for Cotton County since 1971, most often 18 for severe storm events and 7 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in April 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Cotton County's $3M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.