Cotton County, Oklahoma Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OK

Very Low

Composite Risk Score

4.9

National percentile: 5th

Cotton County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 4.9, 5th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $3M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

FEMA's National Risk Index rates Cotton County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 4.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 5th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Most of Cotton County's expected losses come from drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $596K in expected annual loss and about 92.42 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $131K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Low risk — $67K in expected annual loss and about 1.11 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $3M in expected annual loss for a population of 6K.

Beyond physical exposure, Cotton County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.

The federal record bears this out: Cotton County has received 37 federal disaster declarations since 1971, including 18 for severe storm events and 7 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (tornado), declared in April 2024.

Among 77 Oklahoma counties, Cotton County ranks #77 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $3M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Medium Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Low Capacity to recover
Population 6K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Medium $596K/yr
Low $131K/yr
Low $67K/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Drought Medium 92.42 / yr$596K
Wildfire Low 0.00 / yr$131K
Ice Storm Low 1.11 / yr$67K
Heat Wave Very Low 15.79 / yr$155K
Strong Wind Low 4.04 / yr$288K
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$69K
Tornado Low 0.54 / yr$427K
Hail Very Low 10.10 / yr$82K
Hurricane Very Low 0.01 / yr$7K
Landslide Very Low 0.09 / yr$117
Winter Weather Very Low 7.42 / yr$14K
Cold Wave Very Low 1.16 / yr$138K
Riverine Flood Very Low 0.50 / yr$880K
Lightning Very Low 50.81 / yr$9K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Cotton County has received 37 federal disaster declarations since 1971, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in April 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (18), Severe Ice Storm (7), Tornado (4).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
April 2024TornadoSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding
July 2023Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes
February 2021Severe Ice StormSevere Winter Storms
February 2021Severe Ice StormSevere Winter Storm
April 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
July 2017TornadoSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
July 2016FloodSevere Storms and Flooding
February 2016Severe StormSevere Winter Storms and Flooding
May 2015Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding

Showing the 10 most recent of 37 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Cotton County?

Cotton County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 4.9 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 5th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Cotton County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $596K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $131K EAL), Ice Storm (Low, $67K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Cotton County compare to other Oklahoma counties?

Cotton County ranks #77 of 77 Oklahoma counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Cotton County had?

FEMA records 37 federal disaster declarations for Cotton County since 1971, most often 18 for severe storm events and 7 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in April 2024.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Cotton County's $3M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.