Lucas County, Ohio Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OH
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 92th
Lucas County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 92.4, 92th national percentile), driven primarily by tornado and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $111M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Lucas County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 92.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 92nd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $18M in expected annual loss and about 0.28 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 3.24 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.31 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $111M in expected annual loss for a population of 431K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lucas County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Lucas County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 5 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 88 Ohio counties, Lucas County ranks #5 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Tornado | High | 0.28 / yr | $18M |
| Hail | High | 3.24 / yr | $3M |
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.31 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 1.75 / yr | $71M |
| Strong Wind | High | 4.22 / yr | $3M |
| Cold Wave | High | 4.37 / yr | $8M |
| Lightning | High | 38.58 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $4M |
| Winter Weather | High | 9.16 / yr | $284K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 3.26 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $133K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $28K |
| Drought | Low | 0.18 / yr | $55K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.06 / yr | $496 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $19K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lucas County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (5), Flood (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms |
| July 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight Line Winds, and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2003 | Other | Power Outage |
| August 2000 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 1992 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding |
| January 1978 | Snowstorm | Blizzards & Snowstorms |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lucas County?
Lucas County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 92.4 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 92th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lucas County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Tornado (High, $18M EAL), Hail (High, $3M EAL), Ice Storm (Very High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lucas County compare to other Ohio counties?
Lucas County ranks #5 of 88 Ohio counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lucas County had?
FEMA records 16 federal disaster declarations for Lucas County since 1965, most often 5 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lucas County's $111M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.