Butler County, Ohio Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OH
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 91th
Butler County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 91.5, 91th national percentile), driven primarily by tornado and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $120M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Butler County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 91.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 91st national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $28M in expected annual loss and about 0.33 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $16M in expected annual loss and about 3.16 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 48.91 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $120M in expected annual loss for a population of 390K.
Beyond physical exposure, Butler County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Butler County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 5 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 88 Ohio counties, Butler County ranks #6 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Tornado | High | 0.33 / yr | $28M |
| Cold Wave | High | 3.16 / yr | $16M |
| Lightning | High | 48.91 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | High | 2.75 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.57 / yr | $62M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.09 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | High | 11.47 / yr | $474K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $3M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 6.21 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Medium | 3.61 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.19 / yr | $12K |
| Drought | Low | 1.53 / yr | $124K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $33K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $14K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Butler County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (5), Flood (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms |
| October 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Wind Storm Associated with Tropical Depression Ike |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| January 2005 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2001 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 1996 | Flood | Flooding |
| June 1990 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 14 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Butler County?
Butler County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 91.5 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 91th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Butler County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Tornado (High, $28M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $16M EAL), Lightning (High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Butler County compare to other Ohio counties?
Butler County ranks #6 of 88 Ohio counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Butler County had?
FEMA records 14 federal disaster declarations for Butler County since 1968, most often 5 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Butler County's $120M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.