Pierce County, North Dakota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · ND
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 3th
Pierce County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 3.2, 3th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $3M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Pierce County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 3.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 3rd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $184K in expected annual loss and about 21.00 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 22.42 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Very Low risk — $92K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $3M in expected annual loss for a population of 4K.
Beyond physical exposure, Pierce County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Pierce County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 10 for flood events and 9 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 53 North Dakota counties, Pierce County ranks #44 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | Medium | 21.00 / yr | $184K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 22.42 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $92K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.58 / yr | $125K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.30 / yr | $127K |
| Drought | Very Low | 14.24 / yr | $13K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $172 |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 1.07 / yr | $197K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.38 / yr | $205K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.84 / yr | $10K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 26.40 / yr | $19K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $582K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Pierce County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (10), Severe Storm (9), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2017 | Flood | Flooding |
| August 2014 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| March 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| November 2005 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Record and/Or Near Record Snow |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| July 2005 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Ground Saturation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Pierce County?
Pierce County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 3.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 3th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Pierce County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Medium, $184K EAL), Cold Wave (Low, $2M EAL), Wildfire (Very Low, $92K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Pierce County compare to other North Dakota counties?
Pierce County ranks #44 of 53 North Dakota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Pierce County had?
FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Pierce County since 1969, most often 10 for flood events and 9 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Pierce County's $3M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.