Pembina County, North Dakota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · ND
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 21th
Pembina County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 20.9, 21th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Pembina County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 20.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 21st national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $195K in expected annual loss and about 22.16 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $304K in expected annual loss and about 0.38 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 22.74 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 7K.
Beyond physical exposure, Pembina County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Pembina County has received 38 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 24 for flood events and 11 for severe storm events. The most recent was Flooding (flood), declared in July 2023.
Among 53 North Dakota counties, Pembina County ranks #20 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | Medium | 22.16 / yr | $195K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.38 / yr | $304K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 22.74 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $96K |
| Hail | Low | 2.29 / yr | $296K |
| Lightning | Low | 25.88 / yr | $150K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $377 |
| Drought | Low | 6.46 / yr | $27K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.29 / yr | $240K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.75 / yr | $3M |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.46 / yr | $226K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.05 / yr | $21K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Pembina County has received 38 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Flooding in July 2023. Most frequent causes: Flood (24), Severe Storm (11), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2023 | Flood | Flooding |
| July 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| July 2020 | Flood | Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Flood | Flooding |
| July 2017 | Flood | Flooding |
| July 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2013 | Flood | Flooding |
| April 2013 | Flood | Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 38 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Pembina County?
Pembina County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 20.9 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 21th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Pembina County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Medium, $195K EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $304K EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Pembina County compare to other North Dakota counties?
Pembina County ranks #20 of 53 North Dakota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Pembina County had?
FEMA records 38 federal disaster declarations for Pembina County since 1965, most often 24 for flood events and 11 for severe storm events. The most recent was Flooding, declared in July 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Pembina County's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.