McLean County, North Dakota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · ND
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 43th
McLean County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 43.1, 43th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $16M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
McLean County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 43.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 43rd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $746K in expected annual loss and about 19.74 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 2.32 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 18.89 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $16M in expected annual loss for a population of 10K.
Beyond physical exposure, McLean County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: McLean County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1966, including 9 for severe storm events and 9 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storm, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds (severe storm), declared in September 2025.
Among 53 North Dakota counties, McLean County ranks #12 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | High | 19.74 / yr | $746K |
| Hail | Medium | 2.32 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 18.89 / yr | $6M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.59 / yr | $540K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $376K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.31 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Low | 0.74 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.43 / yr | $5M |
| Drought | Low | 17.60 / yr | $39K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.34 / yr | $374 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.58 / yr | $48K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $20K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 28.39 / yr | $48K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
McLean County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1966, most recently Severe Storm, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds in September 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Flood (9), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds |
| July 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| April 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| April 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| November 2005 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Record and/Or Near Record Snow |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for McLean County?
McLean County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 43.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 43th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in McLean County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $746K EAL), Hail (Medium, $2M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $6M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does McLean County compare to other North Dakota counties?
McLean County ranks #12 of 53 North Dakota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has McLean County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for McLean County since 1966, most often 9 for severe storm events and 9 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storm, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds, declared in September 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. McLean County's $16M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.