Barnes County, North Dakota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · ND
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 46th
Barnes County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 45.9, 46th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $13M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Barnes County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 45.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 46th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $442K in expected annual loss and about 24.05 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 19.58 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $960K in expected annual loss and about 3.60 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $13M in expected annual loss for a population of 11K.
Beyond physical exposure, Barnes County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
History supports the rating: Barnes County has received 35 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 19 for flood events and 12 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes (severe storm), declared in October 2025.
Among 53 North Dakota counties, Barnes County ranks #10 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | High | 24.05 / yr | $442K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 19.58 / yr | $4M |
| Hail | Medium | 3.60 / yr | $960K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.70 / yr | $397K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.00 / yr | $924K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $106K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.16 / yr | $1K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.91 / yr | $799K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.86 / yr | $4M |
| Drought | Very Low | 2.34 / yr | $10K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.53 / yr | $49K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 29.91 / yr | $31K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Barnes County has received 35 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes in October 2025. Most frequent causes: Flood (19), Severe Storm (12), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| October 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| September 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds |
| February 2024 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| July 2023 | Flood | Flooding |
| July 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| July 2020 | Flood | Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| January 2020 | Flood | Flooding |
| June 2019 | Flood | Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 35 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Barnes County?
Barnes County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 45.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 46th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Barnes County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $442K EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $4M EAL), Hail (Medium, $960K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Barnes County compare to other North Dakota counties?
Barnes County ranks #10 of 53 North Dakota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Barnes County had?
FEMA records 35 federal disaster declarations for Barnes County since 1965, most often 19 for flood events and 12 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes, declared in October 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Barnes County's $13M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.