McKenzie County, North Dakota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · ND
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 25th
McKenzie County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 25.0, 25th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $12M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates McKenzie County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 25.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 25th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $469K in expected annual loss and about 16.42 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 14.63 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.98 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $12M in expected annual loss for a population of 15K.
Beyond physical exposure, McKenzie County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: McKenzie County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 9 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds (fire), declared in December 2024.
Among 53 North Dakota counties, McKenzie County ranks #17 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | High | 16.42 / yr | $469K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 14.63 / yr | $5M |
| Hail | Medium | 1.98 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $438K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.51 / yr | $321K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.33 / yr | $778K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 1.82 / yr | $2K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.43 / yr | $848K |
| Drought | Low | 31.66 / yr | $39K |
| Lightning | Low | 28.55 / yr | $125K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.00 / yr | $80K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.29 / yr | $3M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $10K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
McKenzie County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds in December 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Flood (5), Fire (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| December 2024 | Fire | Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds |
| October 2024 | Fire | Bear Den Fire |
| October 2024 | Fire | Elk Horn Fire |
| July 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| September 2021 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| October 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Flood | Flooding |
| July 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for McKenzie County?
McKenzie County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 25.0 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 25th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in McKenzie County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $469K EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $5M EAL), Hail (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does McKenzie County compare to other North Dakota counties?
McKenzie County ranks #17 of 53 North Dakota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has McKenzie County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for McKenzie County since 1969, most often 9 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds, declared in December 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. McKenzie County's $12M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.