McIntosh County, North Dakota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · ND
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 35th
McIntosh County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 35.2, 35th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in McIntosh County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 35.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 35th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 16.21 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $164K in expected annual loss and about 21.47 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $424K in expected annual loss and about 3.18 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 3K.
Beyond physical exposure, McIntosh County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: McIntosh County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 8 for severe storm events and 8 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds (winter storm), declared in February 2024.
Among 53 North Dakota counties, McIntosh County ranks #15 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 16.21 / yr | $5M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 21.47 / yr | $164K |
| Hail | Low | 3.18 / yr | $424K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $126K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.76 / yr | $85K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.11 / yr | $267K |
| Drought | Low | 11.08 / yr | $21K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.37 / yr | $263K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $971K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.79 / yr | $13K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 31.23 / yr | $11K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $3 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
McIntosh County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds in February 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (8), Flood (8), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2024 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| July 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| July 2020 | Flood | Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| April 2010 | Flood | Flooding |
| February 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for McIntosh County?
McIntosh County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 35.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 35th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in McIntosh County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $5M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $164K EAL), Hail (Low, $424K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does McIntosh County compare to other North Dakota counties?
McIntosh County ranks #15 of 53 North Dakota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has McIntosh County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for McIntosh County since 1969, most often 8 for severe storm events and 8 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds, declared in February 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. McIntosh County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.