Grant County, North Dakota Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · ND

Very Low

Composite Risk Score

14.8

National percentile: 15th

Grant County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 14.8, 15th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Grant County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 14.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 15th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

The county's risk is driven primarily by hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $758K in expected annual loss and about 2.79 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 13.16 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $115K in expected annual loss and about 19.74 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 2K.

Beyond physical exposure, Grant County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.

History supports the rating: Grant County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1966, including 10 for severe storm events and 10 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storm, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds (severe storm), declared in September 2025.

Among 53 North Dakota counties, Grant County ranks #24 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $5M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Low Capacity to recover
Population 2K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Medium $758K/yr
Medium $2M/yr
Medium $115K/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Hail Medium 2.79 / yr$758K
Cold Wave Medium 13.16 / yr$2M
Winter Weather Medium 19.74 / yr$115K
Wildfire Low 0.00 / yr$94K
Ice Storm Medium 0.89 / yr$111K
Strong Wind Low 1.91 / yr$173K
Drought Very Low 21.34 / yr$5K
Lightning Very Low 32.00 / yr$52K
Tornado Very Low 0.41 / yr$142K
Landslide Very Low 0.39 / yr$43
Heat Wave Very Low 1.89 / yr$15K
Riverine Flood Very Low 0.29 / yr$729K
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$3K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Hurricane Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Grant County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1966, most recently Severe Storm, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds in September 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Flood (10), Biological (2).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
September 2025Severe StormSevere Storm, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds
February 2024Winter StormSevere Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds
July 2022Severe StormSevere Winter Storm and Flooding
September 2021Severe StormSevere Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
April 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
June 2019FloodFlooding
October 2013Severe StormSevere Winter Storm
May 2011FloodFlooding
April 2010Severe StormSevere Winter Storm

Showing the 10 most recent of 27 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Grant County?

Grant County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 14.8 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 15th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Grant County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $758K EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $2M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $115K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Grant County compare to other North Dakota counties?

Grant County ranks #24 of 53 North Dakota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Grant County had?

FEMA records 27 federal disaster declarations for Grant County since 1966, most often 10 for severe storm events and 10 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storm, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds, declared in September 2025.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Grant County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.