Pender County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 87th
Pender County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 86.9, 87th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $67M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Pender County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 86.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 87th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at High risk — $43M in expected annual loss and about 0.35 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $359K in expected annual loss and about 2.23 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $897K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $67M in expected annual loss for a population of 60K.
Beyond physical exposure, Pender County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Pender County has received 31 federal disaster declarations since 1984, including 23 for hurricane events and 2 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Pender County ranks #24 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | High | 0.35 / yr | $43M |
| Winter Weather | High | 2.23 / yr | $359K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $897K |
| Lightning | High | 57.15 / yr | $1M |
| Coastal Flood | Medium | 3.54 / yr | $3M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.87 / yr | $284K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.61 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.75 / yr | $13M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 8.13 / yr | $685K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $385K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.64 / yr | $625K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.47 / yr | $688K |
| Drought | Low | 8.02 / yr | $56K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.89 / yr | $120K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $244 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Pender County has received 31 federal disaster declarations since 1984, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (23), Tropical Storm (2), Severe Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| October 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| May 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
Showing the 10 most recent of 31 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Pender County?
Pender County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 86.9 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 87th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Pender County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (High, $43M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $359K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $897K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Pender County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Pender County ranks #24 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Pender County had?
FEMA records 31 federal disaster declarations for Pender County since 1984, most often 23 for hurricane events and 2 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Pender County's $67M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.