Johnston County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 86th
Johnston County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 85.6, 86th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $62M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Johnston County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 85.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 86th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Johnston County's expected losses come from winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 5.58 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $11M in expected annual loss and about 0.47 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 8.42 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $62M in expected annual loss for a population of 216K.
Beyond physical exposure, Johnston County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Johnston County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 15 for hurricane events and 2 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Johnston County ranks #25 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | Very High | 5.58 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | High | 0.47 / yr | $11M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 8.42 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.61 / yr | $32M |
| Hail | Medium | 4.25 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.22 / yr | $5M |
| Lightning | High | 50.92 / yr | $1M |
| Drought | Medium | 10.96 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.09 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.04 / yr | $541K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.53 / yr | $3M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $813K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.16 / yr | $3K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $58K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Johnston County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (15), Tropical Storm (2), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Johnston County?
Johnston County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 85.6 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 86th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Johnston County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Very High, $1M EAL), Tornado (High, $11M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Johnston County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Johnston County ranks #25 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Johnston County had?
FEMA records 27 federal disaster declarations for Johnston County since 1968, most often 15 for hurricane events and 2 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Johnston County's $62M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.