Caswell County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 22th
Caswell County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 22.4, 22th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Caswell County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 22.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 22nd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Caswell County's expected losses come from hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $657K in expected annual loss and about 0.09 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $456K in expected annual loss and about 16.72 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Very Low risk — $949 in expected annual loss and about 0.63 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 23K.
Beyond physical exposure, Caswell County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Caswell County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 11 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Caswell County ranks #96 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Low | 0.09 / yr | $657K |
| Drought | Medium | 16.72 / yr | $456K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.63 / yr | $949 |
| Winter Weather | Low | 6.79 / yr | $41K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.79 / yr | $45K |
| Hail | Low | 4.54 / yr | $140K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.14 / yr | $673K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $114K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.04 / yr | $4M |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.11 / yr | $158K |
| Lightning | Low | 46.22 / yr | $96K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.23 / yr | $218K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $8K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.58 / yr | $123K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Caswell County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (11), Snowstorm (4), Tropical Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2025 | Tropical Depression | Tropical Depression Chantal |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| January 2019 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Michael |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Caswell County?
Caswell County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 22.4 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 22th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Caswell County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Low, $657K EAL), Drought (Medium, $456K EAL), Landslide (Very Low, $949 EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Caswell County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Caswell County ranks #96 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Caswell County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Caswell County since 1977, most often 11 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Caswell County's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.