Ulster County, New York Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NY
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 88th
Ulster County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 87.7, 88th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $67M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Ulster County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 87.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 88th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Ulster County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $101K in expected annual loss and about 1.72 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $45M in expected annual loss and about 3.64 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 2.86 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $67M in expected annual loss for a population of 182K.
Beyond physical exposure, Ulster County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Ulster County has received 37 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 10 for severe storm events and 9 for hurricane events. The most recent was Remnants of Hurricane Ida (hurricane), declared in September 2021.
Among 62 New York counties, Ulster County ranks #15 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 1.72 / yr | $101K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 3.64 / yr | $45M |
| Strong Wind | High | 2.86 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.34 / yr | $6M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.06 / yr | $5M |
| Lightning | High | 29.48 / yr | $887K |
| Hail | Medium | 2.71 / yr | $994K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 3.45 / yr | $4M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.62 / yr | $246K |
| Avalanche | Low | 0.01 / yr | $5K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 17.48 / yr | $119K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 3.38 / yr | $750K |
| Coastal Flood | Low | 3.76 / yr | $221K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $53K |
| Drought | Low | 0.57 / yr | $137K |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Ulster County has received 37 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Remnants of Hurricane Ida in September 2021. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Hurricane (9), Flood (7).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants of Hurricane Ida |
| September 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants of Hurricane Ida |
| August 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Henri |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2017 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Severe Storm | Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
Showing the 10 most recent of 37 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Ulster County?
Ulster County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 87.7 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 88th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Ulster County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $101K EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $45M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Ulster County compare to other New York counties?
Ulster County ranks #15 of 62 New York counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Ulster County had?
FEMA records 37 federal disaster declarations for Ulster County since 1965, most often 10 for severe storm events and 9 for hurricane events. The most recent was Remnants of Hurricane Ida, declared in September 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Ulster County's $67M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.