Orleans County, New York Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NY
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 18th
Orleans County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 17.9, 18th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Orleans County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 17.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 18th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $158K in expected annual loss and about 2.24 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Very Low risk — $89K in expected annual loss and about 0.03 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $257K in expected annual loss and about 0.73 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 40K.
Beyond physical exposure, Orleans County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Orleans County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 9 for snowstorm events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 62 New York counties, Orleans County ranks #60 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Medium | 2.24 / yr | $158K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $89K |
| Hail | Low | 0.73 / yr | $257K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.54 / yr | $5M |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.17 / yr | $388K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $127K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 3.11 / yr | $412K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 3.05 / yr | $125K |
| Lightning | Low | 26.15 / yr | $103K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 20.11 / yr | $21K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $302K |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.25 / yr | $2K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.06 / yr | $29 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Orleans County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Snowstorm (9), Severe Storm (5), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| November 2017 | Flood | Flooding |
| July 2017 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| December 2014 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, and Flooding |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2006 | Snowstorm | Lake Effect Snowstorm |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| October 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Orleans County?
Orleans County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 17.9 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 18th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Orleans County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Medium, $158K EAL), Hurricane (Very Low, $89K EAL), Hail (Low, $257K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Orleans County compare to other New York counties?
Orleans County ranks #60 of 62 New York counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Orleans County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Orleans County since 1973, most often 9 for snowstorm events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Orleans County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.