Allegany County, New York Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NY
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 70th
Allegany County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 69.8, 70th national percentile), driven primarily by riverine flood and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $27M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Allegany County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 69.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 70th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $24M in expected annual loss and about 1.61 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $8K in expected annual loss and about 0.94 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $841K in expected annual loss and about 1.83 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $27M in expected annual loss for a population of 46K.
Beyond physical exposure, Allegany County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Allegany County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 7 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Remnants of Tropical Storm Debby (tropical storm), declared in September 2024.
Among 62 New York counties, Allegany County ranks #32 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.61 / yr | $24M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.94 / yr | $8K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.83 / yr | $841K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.02 / yr | $303K |
| Lightning | Medium | 30.58 / yr | $330K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.18 / yr | $864K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 4.05 / yr | $645K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.36 / yr | $39K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 20.16 / yr | $30K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $52K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $72 |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.14 / yr | $79K |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.33 / yr | $4K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $7K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.68 / yr | $32K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Allegany County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Remnants of Tropical Storm Debby in September 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (7), Flood (7), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Remnants of Tropical Storm Debby |
| October 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants of Tropical Storm Fred |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| June 2011 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds |
| September 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Allegany County?
Allegany County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 69.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 70th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Allegany County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Riverine Flood (Medium, $24M EAL), Landslide (Low, $8K EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $841K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Allegany County compare to other New York counties?
Allegany County ranks #32 of 62 New York counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Allegany County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Allegany County since 1967, most often 7 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Remnants of Tropical Storm Debby, declared in September 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Allegany County's $27M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.