Thurston County, Nebraska Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NE
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 26th
Thurston County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 26.4, 26th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Thurston County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 26.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 26th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $601K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $964K in expected annual loss and about 6.14 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $955K in expected annual loss and about 42.29 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 7K.
Beyond physical exposure, Thurston County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Thurston County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 11 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds (winter storm), declared in May 2025.
Among 93 Nebraska counties, Thurston County ranks #36 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $601K |
| Hail | Medium | 6.14 / yr | $964K |
| Drought | Medium | 42.29 / yr | $955K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.20 / yr | $7K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 5.32 / yr | $624K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.30 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Low | 4.01 / yr | $372K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.92 / yr | $39K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 6.37 / yr | $410K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.71 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 14.74 / yr | $12K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 42.47 / yr | $25K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $5K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Thurston County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Flood (7), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| July 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2018 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds |
| July 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| November 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Winter Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Thurston County?
Thurston County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 26.4 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 26th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Thurston County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Low, $601K EAL), Hail (Medium, $964K EAL), Drought (Medium, $955K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Thurston County compare to other Nebraska counties?
Thurston County ranks #36 of 93 Nebraska counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Thurston County had?
FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Thurston County since 1967, most often 11 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Thurston County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.