Polk County, Nebraska Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NE

Very Low

Composite Risk Score

25.7

National percentile: 26th

Polk County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 25.7, 26th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $12M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Polk County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 25.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 26th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Most of Polk County's expected losses come from hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 7.29 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 42.94 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 4.12 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $12M in expected annual loss for a population of 5K.

Beyond physical exposure, Polk County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.

The county's disaster history tells the same story: Polk County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 11 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds (winter storm), declared in May 2025.

Among 93 Nebraska counties, Polk County ranks #38 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $12M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Very Low Population sensitivity
Community Resilience High Capacity to recover
Population 5K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

High $5M/yr
Medium $1M/yr
Medium $2M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Hail High 7.29 / yr$5M
Drought Medium 42.94 / yr$1M
Strong Wind Medium 4.12 / yr$2M
Ice Storm Low 0.69 / yr$139K
Lightning Low 43.57 / yr$298K
Winter Weather Low 13.58 / yr$75K
Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr$34K
Tornado Low 0.40 / yr$1M
Heat Wave Very Low 5.26 / yr$117K
Riverine Flood Very Low 0.61 / yr$3M
Cold Wave Very Low 4.89 / yr$237K
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$12K
Landslide Very Low 0.06 / yr$6
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Hurricane Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Polk County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Flood (4), Biological (2).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
May 2025Winter StormSevere Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds
August 2024Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding
July 2022Severe StormSevere Storms and Straight-Line Winds
February 2022Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes
April 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
March 2019FloodSevere Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
August 2017Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds
July 2014Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
August 2011Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight Line Winds, and Flooding

Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Polk County?

Polk County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 25.7 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 26th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Polk County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (High, $5M EAL), Drought (Medium, $1M EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Polk County compare to other Nebraska counties?

Polk County ranks #38 of 93 Nebraska counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Polk County had?

FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Polk County since 1967, most often 11 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds, declared in May 2025.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Polk County's $12M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.