Scotts Bluff County, Nebraska Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NE
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 64th
Scotts Bluff County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 63.8, 64th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $25M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Scotts Bluff County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 63.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 64th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Scotts Bluff County's expected losses come from hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $9M in expected annual loss and about 5.22 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 80.56 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $411K in expected annual loss and about 14.53 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $25M in expected annual loss for a population of 36K.
Beyond physical exposure, Scotts Bluff County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Scotts Bluff County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1997, including 4 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in September 2024.
Among 93 Nebraska counties, Scotts Bluff County ranks #10 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | High | 5.22 / yr | $9M |
| Drought | High | 80.56 / yr | $3M |
| Winter Weather | High | 14.53 / yr | $411K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 4.68 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.03 / yr | $218K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.17 / yr | $878K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $120K |
| Lightning | Medium | 45.42 / yr | $374K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.44 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $298K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.79 / yr | $7M |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.63 / yr | $67K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.15 / yr | $62 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Scotts Bluff County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1997, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in September 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (4), Flood (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| June 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| July 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuees |
| November 1997 | Severe Storm | Severe Snow Storms, Rain, and Strong Winds |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Scotts Bluff County?
Scotts Bluff County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 63.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 64th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Scotts Bluff County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (High, $9M EAL), Drought (High, $3M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $411K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Scotts Bluff County compare to other Nebraska counties?
Scotts Bluff County ranks #10 of 93 Nebraska counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Scotts Bluff County had?
FEMA records 10 federal disaster declarations for Scotts Bluff County since 1997, most often 4 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in September 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Scotts Bluff County's $25M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.