Dawson County, Nebraska Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NE
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 65th
Dawson County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 65.3, 65th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $23M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Dawson County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 65.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 65th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $9M in expected annual loss and about 7.14 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 3.33 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 49.57 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $23M in expected annual loss for a population of 24K.
Beyond physical exposure, Dawson County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Dawson County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1978, including 7 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Morrill-Cottonwood Fire (fire), declared in March 2026.
Among 93 Nebraska counties, Dawson County ranks #8 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | High | 7.14 / yr | $9M |
| Strong Wind | High | 3.33 / yr | $3M |
| Drought | High | 49.57 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | High | 14.84 / yr | $428K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.71 / yr | $3M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $119K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.07 / yr | $120K |
| Lightning | Low | 43.28 / yr | $214K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 4.21 / yr | $315K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.61 / yr | $5M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $66K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.33 / yr | $96 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 4.58 / yr | $188K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Dawson County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1978, most recently Morrill-Cottonwood Fire in March 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (7), Flood (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2026 | Fire | Morrill-Cottonwood Fire |
| September 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| July 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| January 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| January 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Dawson County?
Dawson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 65.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 65th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Dawson County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (High, $9M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $3M EAL), Drought (High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Dawson County compare to other Nebraska counties?
Dawson County ranks #8 of 93 Nebraska counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Dawson County had?
FEMA records 15 federal disaster declarations for Dawson County since 1978, most often 7 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Morrill-Cottonwood Fire, declared in March 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Dawson County's $23M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.