Red Willow County, Nebraska Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NE
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 20th
Red Willow County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 20.3, 20th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Red Willow County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 20.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 20th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 7.96 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 98.12 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $169K in expected annual loss and about 12.37 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 11K.
Beyond physical exposure, Red Willow County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Red Willow County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1990, including 9 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in August 2024.
Among 93 Nebraska counties, Red Willow County ranks #50 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Medium | 7.96 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Medium | 98.12 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 12.37 / yr | $169K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.25 / yr | $123K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.10 / yr | $680K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.51 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 5.37 / yr | $668K |
| Lightning | Low | 42.76 / yr | $141K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 3.84 / yr | $119K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $11K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.25 / yr | $69 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $15K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.50 / yr | $2M |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Red Willow County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1990, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in August 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Biological (2), Fire (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2022 | Fire | Road 702 Fire |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| August 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| January 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuees |
Showing the 10 most recent of 14 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Red Willow County?
Red Willow County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 20.3 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 20th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Red Willow County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $2M EAL), Drought (Medium, $1M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $169K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Red Willow County compare to other Nebraska counties?
Red Willow County ranks #50 of 93 Nebraska counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Red Willow County had?
FEMA records 14 federal disaster declarations for Red Willow County since 1990, most often 9 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in August 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Red Willow County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.