Box Butte County, Nebraska Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NE
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 21th
Box Butte County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 21.0, 21th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Box Butte County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 21.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 21st national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 84.33 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 4.71 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $137K in expected annual loss and about 15.21 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 11K.
Beyond physical exposure, Box Butte County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Box Butte County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 2001, including 5 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds (severe storm), declared in September 2021.
Among 93 Nebraska counties, Box Butte County ranks #48 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 84.33 / yr | $4M |
| Hail | Medium | 4.71 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 15.21 / yr | $137K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $103K |
| Lightning | Low | 43.81 / yr | $298K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.03 / yr | $102K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 5.79 / yr | $998K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $108K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.51 / yr | $611K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.40 / yr | $204K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.63 / yr | $21K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $955K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.16 / yr | $8 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Box Butte County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 2001, most recently Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds in September 2021. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (5), Biological (2), Flood (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2021 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds |
| June 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuees |
| May 2001 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding and Tornadoes |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Box Butte County?
Box Butte County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 21.0 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 21th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Box Butte County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $4M EAL), Hail (Medium, $1M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $137K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Box Butte County compare to other Nebraska counties?
Box Butte County ranks #48 of 93 Nebraska counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Box Butte County had?
FEMA records 9 federal disaster declarations for Box Butte County since 2001, most often 5 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds, declared in September 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Box Butte County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.