Pawnee County, Nebraska Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NE
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 4th
Pawnee County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 3.8, 4th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $2M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Pawnee County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 3.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 4th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $326K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Low risk — $166K in expected annual loss and about 8.59 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $234K in expected annual loss and about 7.69 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $2M in expected annual loss for a population of 3K.
Beyond physical exposure, Pawnee County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Pawnee County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 10 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes (severe storm), declared in February 2022.
Among 93 Nebraska counties, Pawnee County ranks #75 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $326K |
| Drought | Low | 8.59 / yr | $166K |
| Hail | Low | 7.69 / yr | $234K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $489 |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.87 / yr | $38K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 12.05 / yr | $26K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.37 / yr | $405K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 8.26 / yr | $102K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 4.52 / yr | $117K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 47.92 / yr | $28K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 3.32 / yr | $53K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.39 / yr | $941K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $5K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Pawnee County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes in February 2022. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Flood (6), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| October 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Tornado, and Straight-Lin |
| April 2010 | Flood | Severe Storms, Ice Jams, and Flooding |
| February 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorm |
| December 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Pawnee County?
Pawnee County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 3.8 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 4th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Pawnee County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Low, $326K EAL), Drought (Low, $166K EAL), Hail (Low, $234K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Pawnee County compare to other Nebraska counties?
Pawnee County ranks #75 of 93 Nebraska counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Pawnee County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Pawnee County since 1967, most often 10 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes, declared in February 2022.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Pawnee County's $2M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.