Garden County, Nebraska Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NE
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 3th
Garden County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 2.8, 3th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $3M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Garden County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 2.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 3rd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $858K in expected annual loss and about 77.04 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $493K in expected annual loss and about 44.10 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Very Low risk — $127K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $3M in expected annual loss for a population of 2K.
Beyond physical exposure, Garden County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Garden County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 2001, including 5 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Wildfires (fire), declared in June 2026.
Among 93 Nebraska counties, Garden County ranks #77 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 77.04 / yr | $858K |
| Lightning | Medium | 44.10 / yr | $493K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $127K |
| Hail | Low | 5.72 / yr | $431K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 15.58 / yr | $24K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 5.16 / yr | $227K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.96 / yr | $156K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 1.68 / yr | $129K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.65 / yr | $36 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $10K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $2K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.68 / yr | $4K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.29 / yr | $602K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Garden County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 2001, most recently Wildfires in June 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (5), Flood (3), Fire (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | Fire | Wildfires |
| March 2026 | Fire | Morrill-Cottonwood Fire |
| May 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| June 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| July 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
Showing the 10 most recent of 13 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Garden County?
Garden County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 2.8 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 3th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Garden County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $858K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $493K EAL), Wildfire (Very Low, $127K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Garden County compare to other Nebraska counties?
Garden County ranks #77 of 93 Nebraska counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Garden County had?
FEMA records 13 federal disaster declarations for Garden County since 2001, most often 5 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Wildfires, declared in June 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Garden County's $3M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.