Keith County, Nebraska Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NE
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 14th
Keith County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 13.8, 14th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Keith County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 13.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 14th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 6.87 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $821K in expected annual loss and about 97.97 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $153K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 8K.
Beyond physical exposure, Keith County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Keith County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 2001, including 4 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Morrill-Cottonwood Fire (fire), declared in March 2026.
Among 93 Nebraska counties, Keith County ranks #58 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Medium | 6.87 / yr | $1M |
| Drought | Medium | 97.97 / yr | $821K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $153K |
| Lightning | Medium | 44.09 / yr | $358K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 15.53 / yr | $83K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 4.68 / yr | $656K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.28 / yr | $413K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.63 / yr | $483K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.31 / yr | $136 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $24K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $13K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.95 / yr | $47K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.46 / yr | $2M |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Keith County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 2001, most recently Morrill-Cottonwood Fire in March 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (4), Biological (2), Fire (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2026 | Fire | Morrill-Cottonwood Fire |
| August 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2018 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| August 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| January 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuees |
| May 2001 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding and Tornadoes |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Keith County?
Keith County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 13.8 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 14th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Keith County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $1M EAL), Drought (Medium, $821K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $153K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Keith County compare to other Nebraska counties?
Keith County ranks #58 of 93 Nebraska counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Keith County had?
FEMA records 9 federal disaster declarations for Keith County since 2001, most often 4 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Morrill-Cottonwood Fire, declared in March 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Keith County's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.