Frontier County, Nebraska Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NE

Very Low

Composite Risk Score

13.7

National percentile: 14th

Frontier County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 13.7, 14th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $4M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

FEMA's National Risk Index rates Frontier County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 13.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 14th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Most of Frontier County's expected losses come from hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 7.57 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 3.59 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $462K in expected annual loss and about 87.29 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $4M in expected annual loss for a population of 3K.

Beyond physical exposure, Frontier County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.

The federal record bears this out: Frontier County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 8 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Road 702 Fire (fire), declared in April 2022.

Among 93 Nebraska counties, Frontier County ranks #60 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $4M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Very Low Capacity to recover
Population 3K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Medium $1M/yr
Medium $1M/yr
Medium $462K/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Hail Medium 7.57 / yr$1M
Strong Wind Medium 3.59 / yr$1M
Drought Medium 87.29 / yr$462K
Winter Weather Low 12.74 / yr$46K
Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr$22K
Landslide Very Low 0.66 / yr$306
Tornado Low 0.66 / yr$361K
Ice Storm Low 0.12 / yr$21K
Heat Wave Very Low 4.63 / yr$35K
Cold Wave Very Low 4.05 / yr$120K
Lightning Very Low 42.71 / yr$30K
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$7K
Riverine Flood Very Low 0.71 / yr$770K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Hurricane Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Frontier County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Road 702 Fire in April 2022. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (8), Flood (3), Biological (2).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
April 2022FireRoad 702 Fire
April 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
March 2019FloodSevere Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
July 2010Severe StormSevere Storms and Flooding
February 2010Severe StormSevere Winter Storms and Snowstorm
June 2008Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding
July 2007Severe StormSevere Storms and Flooding
January 2007Severe StormSevere Winter Storms
January 2006Severe StormSevere Winter Storm

Showing the 10 most recent of 16 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Frontier County?

Frontier County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 13.7 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 14th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Frontier County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $1M EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $1M EAL), Drought (Medium, $462K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Frontier County compare to other Nebraska counties?

Frontier County ranks #60 of 93 Nebraska counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Frontier County had?

FEMA records 16 federal disaster declarations for Frontier County since 1967, most often 8 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Road 702 Fire, declared in April 2022.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Frontier County's $4M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.