Buffalo County, Nebraska Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NE
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 66th
Buffalo County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 66.0, 66th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $37M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Buffalo County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 66.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 66th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $13M in expected annual loss and about 6.95 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 3.69 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 39.82 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $37M in expected annual loss for a population of 50K.
Beyond physical exposure, Buffalo County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Buffalo County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 10 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes (severe storm), declared in February 2022.
Among 93 Nebraska counties, Buffalo County ranks #7 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | High | 6.95 / yr | $13M |
| Strong Wind | High | 3.69 / yr | $6M |
| Drought | Medium | 39.82 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.35 / yr | $598K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $364K |
| Lightning | Medium | 43.14 / yr | $805K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.85 / yr | $4M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 15.53 / yr | $191K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 4.63 / yr | $671K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.89 / yr | $10M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $65K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.31 / yr | $247 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 4.74 / yr | $375K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Buffalo County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes in February 2022. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Flood (4), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| July 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| January 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuees |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Buffalo County?
Buffalo County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 66.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 66th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Buffalo County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (High, $13M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $6M EAL), Drought (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Buffalo County compare to other Nebraska counties?
Buffalo County ranks #7 of 93 Nebraska counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Buffalo County had?
FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for Buffalo County since 1967, most often 10 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes, declared in February 2022.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Buffalo County's $37M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.