Dakota County, Nebraska Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NE
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 36th
Dakota County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 36.0, 36th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $12M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Dakota County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 36.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 36th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Dakota County's expected losses come from hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 6.21 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $343K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.21 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $12M in expected annual loss for a population of 22K.
Beyond physical exposure, Dakota County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Dakota County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 7 for flood events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds (winter storm), declared in May 2025.
Among 93 Nebraska counties, Dakota County ranks #25 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Medium | 6.21 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $343K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.21 / yr | $3M |
| Drought | Medium | 46.49 / yr | $686K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.13 / yr | $9K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.97 / yr | $167K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 6.58 / yr | $590K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 14.63 / yr | $67K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 4.03 / yr | $563K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.89 / yr | $4M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 6.42 / yr | $397K |
| Lightning | Low | 41.76 / yr | $91K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $16K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Dakota County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Flood (7), Severe Storm (5), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| September 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2018 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| June 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| April 2010 | Flood | Severe Storms, Ice Jams, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Dakota County?
Dakota County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 36.0 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 36th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Dakota County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $1M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $343K EAL), Tornado (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Dakota County compare to other Nebraska counties?
Dakota County ranks #25 of 93 Nebraska counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Dakota County had?
FEMA records 16 federal disaster declarations for Dakota County since 1967, most often 7 for flood events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Dakota County's $12M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.