Thayer County, Nebraska Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NE
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 38th
Thayer County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 38.4, 38th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $13M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Thayer County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 38.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 38th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 8.04 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 4.72 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 27.83 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $13M in expected annual loss for a population of 5K.
Beyond physical exposure, Thayer County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Thayer County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 10 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in October 2025.
Among 93 Nebraska counties, Thayer County ranks #24 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | High | 8.04 / yr | $5M |
| Strong Wind | High | 4.72 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Medium | 27.83 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.88 / yr | $167K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 12.32 / yr | $96K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.56 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $36K |
| Lightning | Low | 44.98 / yr | $129K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 6.79 / yr | $97K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.75 / yr | $3M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $11K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 3.84 / yr | $66K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $13 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Thayer County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding in October 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Flood (6), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| October 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2025 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| February 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| February 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorm |
| December 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| June 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Thayer County?
Thayer County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 38.4 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 38th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Thayer County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (High, $5M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL), Drought (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Thayer County compare to other Nebraska counties?
Thayer County ranks #24 of 93 Nebraska counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Thayer County had?
FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Thayer County since 1967, most often 10 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding, declared in October 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Thayer County's $13M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.