Thayer County, Nebraska Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NE

Very Low

Composite Risk Score

38.4

National percentile: 38th

Thayer County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 38.4, 38th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $13M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Overall natural disaster risk in Thayer County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 38.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 38th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

The county's risk is driven primarily by hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 8.04 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 4.72 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 27.83 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $13M in expected annual loss for a population of 5K.

Beyond physical exposure, Thayer County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.

History supports the rating: Thayer County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 10 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in October 2025.

Among 93 Nebraska counties, Thayer County ranks #24 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $13M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Low Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Medium Capacity to recover
Population 5K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

High $5M/yr
High $2M/yr
Medium $1M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Hail High 8.04 / yr$5M
Strong Wind High 4.72 / yr$2M
Drought Medium 27.83 / yr$1M
Ice Storm Medium 0.88 / yr$167K
Winter Weather Low 12.32 / yr$96K
Tornado Low 0.56 / yr$1M
Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr$36K
Lightning Low 44.98 / yr$129K
Heat Wave Very Low 6.79 / yr$97K
Riverine Flood Very Low 0.75 / yr$3M
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$11K
Cold Wave Very Low 3.84 / yr$66K
Landslide Very Low 0.10 / yr$13
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Hurricane Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Thayer County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding in October 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Flood (6), Biological (2).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
October 2025Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
May 2025Winter StormSevere Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds
February 2022Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes
April 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
March 2019FloodSevere Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
June 2015Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
February 2010Severe StormSevere Winter Storms and Snowstorm
December 2009Severe StormSevere Winter Storm
June 2008Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding

Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Thayer County?

Thayer County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 38.4 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 38th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Thayer County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (High, $5M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL), Drought (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Thayer County compare to other Nebraska counties?

Thayer County ranks #24 of 93 Nebraska counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Thayer County had?

FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Thayer County since 1967, most often 10 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding, declared in October 2025.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Thayer County's $13M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.