Prairie County, Montana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MT
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 4th
Prairie County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 4.2, 4th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $2M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Prairie County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 4.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 4th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 11.95 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Very Low risk — $67K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Low risk — $17K in expected annual loss and about 17.68 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $2M in expected annual loss for a population of 1K.
Beyond physical exposure, Prairie County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Prairie County has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1997, including 2 for biological events and 2 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 56 Montana counties, Prairie County ranks #47 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | Low | 11.95 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $67K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 17.68 / yr | $17K |
| Drought | Very Low | 42.40 / yr | $6K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.95 / yr | $40K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.79 / yr | $74 |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.89 / yr | $42K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 1.38 / yr | $48K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.15 / yr | $38K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 29.24 / yr | $19K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.79 / yr | $626K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $669 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Prairie County has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1997, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Severe Storm (2), Flood (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2014 | Flood | Ice Jams and Flooding |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| August 2000 | Fire | Wildfires |
| July 1997 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms,Ice Jams, Snow Melt, Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Prairie County?
Prairie County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 4.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 4th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Prairie County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (Low, $1M EAL), Wildfire (Very Low, $67K EAL), Winter Weather (Low, $17K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Prairie County compare to other Montana counties?
Prairie County ranks #47 of 56 Montana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Prairie County had?
FEMA records 7 federal disaster declarations for Prairie County since 1997, most often 2 for biological events and 2 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Prairie County's $2M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.