Fallon County, Montana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MT
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 5th
Fallon County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 5.4, 5th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $4M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Fallon County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 5.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 5th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 8.16 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Low risk — $116K in expected annual loss and about 16.32 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Very Low risk — $93K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $4M in expected annual loss for a population of 3K.
Beyond physical exposure, Fallon County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Fallon County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 2000, including 3 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 56 Montana counties, Fallon County ranks #45 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | Medium | 8.16 / yr | $3M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 16.32 / yr | $116K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $93K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.19 / yr | $126K |
| Drought | Very Low | 54.59 / yr | $6K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.16 / yr | $19K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.50 / yr | $80 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.95 / yr | $39K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $98K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 32.11 / yr | $38K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 1.33 / yr | $83K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $10K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.43 / yr | $1M |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Fallon County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 2000, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (3), Biological (2), Tornado (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2016 | Tornado | Tornado |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| December 2000 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| August 2000 | Fire | Wildfires |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Fallon County?
Fallon County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 5.4 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 5th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Fallon County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (Medium, $3M EAL), Winter Weather (Low, $116K EAL), Wildfire (Very Low, $93K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Fallon County compare to other Montana counties?
Fallon County ranks #45 of 56 Montana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Fallon County had?
FEMA records 8 federal disaster declarations for Fallon County since 2000, most often 3 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Fallon County's $4M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.