Madison County, Montana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MT
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 41th
Madison County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 41.0, 41th national percentile), driven primarily by avalanche and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $15M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Madison County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 41.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 41st national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Very High risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 0.40 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $192K in expected annual loss and about 4.24 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $15M in expected annual loss for a population of 9K.
Beyond physical exposure, Madison County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Madison County has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1997, including 2 for biological events and 2 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 56 Montana counties, Madison County ranks #24 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Avalanche | Very High | 0.40 / yr | $6M |
| Landslide | Medium | 4.24 / yr | $192K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.03 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 42.13 / yr | $99K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 3.61 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Low | 37.66 / yr | $164K |
| Drought | Very Low | 91.84 / yr | $30K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.32 / yr | $4M |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.38 / yr | $106K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $4K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.16 / yr | $8K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.34 / yr | $42K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $16K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Madison County has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1997, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Severe Storm (2), Fire (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| August 2000 | Fire | Wildfires |
| August 2000 | Fire | Mt - Central Zone 3c Fire Complex |
| July 1997 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms,Ice Jams, Snow Melt, Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Madison County?
Madison County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 41.0 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 41th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Madison County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Avalanche (Very High, $6M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $192K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Madison County compare to other Montana counties?
Madison County ranks #24 of 56 Montana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Madison County had?
FEMA records 7 federal disaster declarations for Madison County since 1997, most often 2 for biological events and 2 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Madison County's $15M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.